Met Office has say on how likely White Christmas really is
The Met Office has warned people not to believe everything they read when it comes to white Christmas forecasts. With December 25 still more than three weeks away, the UK’s national weather service says it is still too early to accurately predict the likelihood of snow on Christmas Day. While temperatures are set to drop as December begins, the Met Office says snow is difficult to forecast and can’t be accurately predicted more than a few days in advance.
And if history is anything to go by, we shouldn’t get out hopes up for a white Christmas. It comes amid a flurry of reports about the possibility of the white stuff falling in the coming weeks and the usual speculation about whether anyone will get dusting a snow to enjoy along with their presents under the tree. The Met Office states: “We can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.
READ MORE: Risk of sleet as ‘below average’ temperatures set to hit Coventry and Warwickshire “Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a ‘White Christmas’.”
However, the Met Office definition of a white Christmas is when one snowflake is observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25 somewhere in the UK. The weather forecaster adds: “The Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. “There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground – where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am – four times since 1960: in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.” The Met Office says the most recent widespread white Christmas in 2010 was “extremely unusual”.
Not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations that year – the highest amount ever recorded – but snow or sleet also fell at almost one in five of them (19%). Technically, last year was a white Christmas, with 6% of stations recording snow falling – but less than 1% reported any snow on the ground.
2022 White Christmas Odds
| Glasgow | 3/1 |
| Edinburgh | 3/1 |
| Newcastle | 3/1 |
| Belfast | 4/1 |
| Manchester | 4/1 |
| Leeds | 4/1 |
| Liverpool | 5/1 |
| Birmingham | 5/1 |
| Crawley | 5/1 |
| Cardiff | 6/1 |
| London | 6/1 |
| Bristol | 7/1 |
Some forecasters claim to be able to predict snow weeks in advance. However, the Met Office insisted snowfall forecasts as complex and can be changed by a range of factors, reports North Wales Live.
The national weather service: “As it’s so cold high up in the atmosphere, most precipitation either starts off as snow or supercooled raindrops. As it falls to earth, it moves through warmer air most of the time and melts. “Depending on the temperature of the air near the ground we either see rain or sleet or hail.
However, the freezing level (usually the boundary at which precipitation will fall as snow rather than rain) doesn’t just stay the same every day, or even within a day – sometimes it can change hour by hour, across the country, or even a few miles down the road.”
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