UK set for even hotter summer and could break last year’s 40C record
The UK could be set for a summer season even hotter than last year’s record-breaking temperatures, an expert has said.
Jim Dale, of British Weather[1] Services, said the El Niño weather phenomenon could be a major factor and push mercury levels beyond the searing 40C heat in 2022. It resulted in more than 800 fire incidents across the country and official droughts declared due to low-water levels and tinder-dry conditions.
The same phenomenon is predicted to be particularly powerful again in summer 2023, which would likely lead to scorching temperatures in the UK once again. Jim told the Daily Star[2]: “It will take time to build for us, we’re talking maybe mid-summer – it won’t be an overnight sensation.
“What we’ve got to have in place for that extreme heat to happen is climate change, that’s still happening, and El Nino. Then for the UK to join it, it’s the right synoptic situation.
“Changes in atmospheric pressure causing heat spikes. You get into that scenario and we’re very capable in terms of climate change of getting back up to 40C in July, August, maybe early September.”
The weather event, caused by the warming of Pacific Ocean water, sees warm currents circulate off the coast of Peru, Ecuador and the Eastern Pacific. It makes California and southern Europe baking hot and causes floods in southeast Asia.
The abnormally hot weather won’t be welcome for many Brits as last year’s sweltering heat led to weather warnings for heat in place across the country., including Lancashire[3] and Cumbria[4]. Hot conditions can also lead to pressure on the NHS[5] and disruptions for commuters using public transport[6].
The UK could break last year’s 40C record highs over the coming months, it has been claimed
The Met Office said at the time: “For the first time ever, 40 Celsius has provisionally been exceeded in the UK. London Heathrow reported a temperature of 40.2C at 12.50pm today. Temperatures are still climbing in many places, so remember to stay WeatherAware.”
Prof Peter Stott, at the Met Office, said: “I find it shocking that we’ve reached these temperatures today in 2022, smashing the previous record set only in 2019.” At the time, he added: “But we calculated it as a relatively low likelihood – a roughly one in a hundred chance – albeit that those chances are increasing rapidly all the time with continued warming.”
He continued: “Breaking 40C today is very worrying; we’ve never seen anything like this in the UK and it could be that the risk of such extreme heat is even greater than our previous calculation showed.” Prof Hannah Cloke, at the University of Reading, said: “The all-time temperature record for the UK has not just been broken, it has been absolutely obliterated.
“Even as a climate scientist who studies this stuff, this is scary.” England had its joint hottest summer in a series which runs from 1884, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.
Dr Mark McCarthy of the National Climate Information Centre said: “For many this summer’s record-breaking heat in July – where temperatures reached 40.3°C at Coningsby in Lincolnshire – will be the season’s most memorable aspect. However, for England to achieve its joint warmest summer takes more than extreme heat over a couple of days, so we shouldn’t forget that we experienced some persistently warm and hot spells through June and August too.”