The race for Mid Bedfordshire is on

29/08/2023

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POLITICO London Playbook

By ROSA PRINCE

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Good bank holiday Monday morning. This is Rosa Prince — Dan Bloom will be with you Tuesday.

DRIVING THE DAY

NADINE, NADINE, NADINE, NADINE: It took 79 days from announcing her decision to stand down “with immediate effect” to submitting her resignation letter via the Mail on Sunday ^[4], but Nadine Dorries’ exit means the phony war in the battle for Mid Bedfordshire is over and the fight proper can finally begin. Playbook has been chatting with the candidates hoping to succeed her. But first, the latest on Dorries’ dramatic departure.

Please don’t bash him just because you can: Fresh from deriding Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s “Prada shoes and Savile Row suit” and revealing she “declined to take the call” when he declined to put her in his Cabinet, Dorries’ Rishi bashing continued. Interviewed on Talk TV ^[5], she wouldn’t commit to voting Conservative at the general election and set out what she described as the PM’s “litany of failures,” adding: “There are so many things being kicked into the long grass since Rishi took power.” The Express ^[6] has a write-up.

He talks about you in his sleep: Reaction from inside the party to Dorries’ much-anticipated departure has been mixed; Bob Neill called her “embarrassing” while Veterans’ Minister Johnny Mercer said: “I just don’t think that people are interested in hearing this anymore,” (both on Times Radio). Taking the contrary view, John Redwood is quoted in today’s Mail ^[7] saying Sunak should respond to the ex-minister’s broadside by giving his backbenchers “good Conservative reforms.” And tax cuts. Natch.

I cannot compete with you, Nadine: Rob Hutton’s sketch on Dorries’ resignation ^[8] letter is chef’s-kiss delicious: “The full letter came in just shy of 1,800 words. That’s a little longer than St Paul’s note to the Philippians, but then the apostle had less to get off his chest than St Nadine.”

Enough Dolly Parton: On to the important stuff — Dorries has now applied to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt for appointment to the Chiltern Hundreds, the arcane and utterly bizarro parliamentary device by which MPs quit the Commons. But the writ to hold the by-election to replace her cannot be moved until parliament returns on September 4, with the contest likely to be held at the start of October — conference season.

MEET THE CANDIDATES: It’s a three-horse race to replace Dories in Mid Beds — to find out more, Playbook spoke to the main runners and riders.

In the blue corner: The Conservative tasked with hanging on to the seat is Festus Akinbusoye, who currently serves as police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire. It’s a tricky one: on the one hand he’s defending a majority of more than 24,000 in a seat which has been true Tory blue since 1931. On the other, he’s fighting it in the context of a national party which is 20 points behind in the polls ^[9], and plenty of disaffection locally about the behavior of the outgoing MP.

The candidate: Born in Lagos, Akinbusoye moved with his family to east London at the age of 13. He worked as a parliamentary assistant to Tories Mark Lancaster, Iain Stewart and Ben Everitt, and stood as the Conservative candidate in West Ham in 2015. He’s been a special constable, and is a director on the board of the YMCA.

No regrets: Like all the candidates Playbook spoke to, Akinbusoye wasn’t shedding a tear that Dorries had finally quit: “I am delighted that residents in Mid Bedfordshire will now have the opportunity to select a new MP,” he said diplomatically.

Everything is local: Also like the other two, Akinbusoye was pushing his local connections. Describing himself as “the only candidate from one of the main political parties to live and work in the constituency,” he added: “I understand the issues here and share the priorities of local people.”

Expectation management: A Conservative official told Playbook: “Festus is a great local candidate with a track record of working hard and delivering for the area as the Bedfordshire PCC, but obviously incumbent parties rarely win by-elections mid term so it’ll be tough but we’ll work hard for every vote.”

In the red corner: At 33, Alistair Strathern is the youngest of the three candidates. Reports emerged over the weekend that he’s on leave from the Bank of England, where he works as climate leader in the insurance division, so he can campaign. A local councilor in north London, he moved to Bedfordshire with his partner, who works for Greenpeace, after being selected.

The challenge: Strathern is facing a two-pronged attack — he needs to beat off the challenge from the Lib Dems, who are working hard to establish themselves as best placed to defeat the Tories, and defend himself against highly personal attacks from Conservatives seeking to portray him as an “eco-zealot”^[10] after he dressed as a zombie for a climate change protest.

Christmas Eve: News of Dorries’ departure broke while Strathern was canvassing, and he said the response was like “Christmas Eve.” “You could really sense the palpable excitement. People have been responding really well. They’re looking forward to having someone more present and active, someone who can change things not just locally.”

That’s the message: He’s eager to make the point that, unlike a Lib Dem, he would be an MP with influence were Labour to make it into government. And as for those Tory eco-zealot jibes: “The fact they’ve had to lean into this so hard shows what an absence of achievement in government they have to point to.”

More expectation management: Labour Chair Anneliese Dodds, who was out canvassing with Strathern at the weekend, told Times Radio: “Obviously it will take an absolutely enormous change in that constituency for Labour to win. We’re talking about a really big Conservative majority.”

In the yellow corner: Emma Holland-Lindsay, 39, boasts that she’s third-generation Bedfordshire — she lives in the county with her husband and two daughters. A long-time charity worker, she’s currently a press officer for the Women’s Institute, which is about as home counties as it gets.

The argument: Having come third in 2019, the Lib Dems were pretty audacious in seeking to portray themselves as the only alternative to the Conservatives as soon as Dorries (first) announced her departure. But Holland-Lindsay makes the case that her party has a greater chance of success in blue wall seats such as Mid Beds, and party leader Ed Davy has virtually set up home in the constituency. And, to be fair, the Lib Dems have made by-elections into something of an art form in recent years.

Killer yellows: Holland-Lindsay tells Playbook: “In these kinds of places, it’s the Lib Dems who can beat the Tories — we’ve shown that time and time again. I’ve been campaigning hard and it’s been so positive. We’ve had lifelong Conservatives saying they can’t vote Conservative and they’re coming over to us as Liberal Democrats.”

The overview: A party spokesperson points out that the Liberal Democrats are the bookies’ favorites to win (although the polls point to a Labour victory).

The nightmare … For both Holland-Lindsay and Strathern — and the fantasy for Akinbusoye — would be if they both perform well and so cancel each other out on polling day, giving the Tories an unlikely victory and a conference boost for Sunak.

Talking of Rishi: The PM is in his Yorkshire constituency this morning and is set to return to London this afternoon.

Better not read this: A poll for the i ^[11] today puts Labour 15 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally, and on course to win a landslide comparable to Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and Transport Secretary Mark Harper are among five Cabinet ministers the BMG poll suggests could lose their seats.

HOMING IN

NO STONE UNTURNED: Police forces across the country have agreed to rise to Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s challenge to pursue all “reasonable lines of enquiry” to solve more crime. The commitment comes in response to frustration from victims who complain police seem uninterested in following leads such as phone or laptop tracking apps, or evidence from doorbell cameras. Guidance will now be issued by the College of Policing telling detectives they will be expected to follow leads including CCTV and dash cam evidence and forensics such as fingerprints or DNA.

Getting it back: If there is a prospect of recovering a stolen item such as a bike, phone or computer, because of a “unique” feature such as a serial number, then police should go ahead and reunite owners with their property, the guidance will add.

Every breath you take: The “back-to-basics” approach comes after Braverman ^[12] earlier this month asked forces to follow the example of Greater Manchester Police Chief Constable Stephen Watson, who ordered officers to investigate all crimes. It follows alarming stats showing that police were effectively decriminalizing offenses such as shoplifting and burglary by failing to make any arrests in large numbers of neighborhoods.

Almost like a Crime Week: Braverman has the morning round — timings below — and will also seek to highlight the results of the 50,000 drug tests carried out on suspects in the last year, which found more than half tested positive for cocaine or opiates. This allowed those entering the criminal justice system to be referred for interventions and treatment. She will also urge forces to make full “legitimate” use of stop and search to target drug users and pushers.

Broken windows: Braverman has an op-ed on the new crime-busting drive which splashes the Telegraph ^[13]. She writes: “Victims of these awful crimes are failed when police simply don’t take an interest in following reasonable leads — instead just handing out a crime reference number. It’s completely unacceptable Let’s be clear: all crime matters. There is no such thing as a trivial crime.”

Jess not impressed: “I literally wouldn’t let her take my bins out,” says Jess Phillips of Braverman in a characteristically zesty interview ^[14] with the Guardian’s Peter Walker. The shadow home affairs minister goes on: “Confidence in policing has never been so low, and the government’s big offer on crime recently was, ‘We’re committed to investigating every crime’. It’s just like, slow hand clap. It’s like them spitting in your face and telling you it’s raining.” It’s worth reading the whole interview including the excruciating account of Phillips’ first conversation with then-leadership contender Rishi Sunak.

Away from the rhetoric: The Sun’s Natasha Clark has unearthed stats ^[15] showing that the number of criminals convicted of offenses involving knives but spared jail has doubled in the past decade.

MUSTA BEEN A GOOD LUNCH: The Telegraph ^[16] and Times, which splashes the story ^[17], both report that illegal migrants could be electronically tagged or required to use smart phone facial recognition to check in with the authorities before being deported. The plans are said to be under consideration by ministers as a means of abiding by the Illegal Migration Act, which received royal assent last month and requires the home secretary to detain illegal migrants on arrival, pending removal.

Every step you take: Major objections to the scheme, the papers report, include cost and fears that there are not enough tags in existence to cope with the numbers officials anticipate.

BARGING IN: The Fire Brigades Union is threatening to sue the Home Office over concerns about the safety of the seemingly cursed Bibby Stockholm barge. In a “pre-action protocol letter” seen by the Guardian ^[18], the union seeks reassurances over fire doors and potential overcrowding, and demands a response by Thursday. Tests to see whether all traces of Legionella bacteria have been cleared from the barge’s water system are due back later this week. A government official said: “It’s a Labour-affiliated union trying to frustrate the government’s plans because Labour don’t want to see the boats stopped.”

**POLITICO Power Play, our brand-new global podcast, brings you insightful conversations with global power players, hosted by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Don’t miss an episode of our season in September by subscribing for ^[19] alerts in one click.**

TRADING PLACES

WELCOME HOME, KEMI: Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch flew back from India leaving behind negotiators to thrash out the much sought after U.K.-India trade deal. Badenoch started her trip in Jaipur for the G20 trade meeting before continuing on to Delhi Friday for talks with Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. A Department of Business and Trade spokesperson told Playbook: “Talks were positive, and productive. It was important for Badenoch and Goyal to be in the room with their top negotiating teams to address the outstanding issues that need to be unblocked.”

Inching closer: Officials have been hosing down the suggestion that a deal is imminent, but there’s no doubt Downing Street would love to be able to make an announcement when Rishi Sunak arrives in the country of his ancestors for the full G20 gathering next month. Trouble is, it’s a complex negotiation, with tensions over how much the British side can give way over India’s push for visa relaxation given Sunak’s desire to drive down migrant numbers. The official said: “It was a good meeting, but we always knew talks would need to continue beyond this visit, and both sides will now intensify talks to try and secure an ambitious deal.”

What Kemi says: Speaking to the Hindu ^[20], Badenoch said a deal was “close.” She went on: “We have closed many chapters … perhaps the simpler tasks. And we are now in the final stages, I can’t give a deadline, anything could happen. But what I can say is that I’m very optimistic.”

Scotching reports: The official pushed back on suggestions at the weekend ^[21] that the Indian side will offer to lower duty on Scottish whisky and electric cars in return for a reduction in the amount Indian workers are required to pay the Treasury. They told Playbook: “There will be no deal unless it works for the U.K. economy. An ambitious deal such as this is not dependent on one issue or one obstacle here or there.”

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Out of office.

YOUR DOCTOR WILL SEE YOU NOW: GPs who let patients see the doctor of their choice would be paid more under a Labour government, Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting said. Taking the fight to the enemy, he’s written an op-ed ^[22] in the Telegraph explaining the plan.

Getting tough: In the wake of the Lucy Letby scandal, senior NHS managers found to have committed serious misconduct would be struck off under Labour, Streeting tells the Times ^[23].

Talking of Labour’s Telegraph charm offensive: Rachel Reeves’ interview with the Sunday Telegraph ^[24], in which she ruled out wealth taxes, continues to make waves. The Corbynistas ain’t happy ^[25], put it that way ^[26].

ULEZ LOOPHOLE: Tradespeople driving polluting vehicles in London’s expanding ultra low emission zone (ULEZ) can claim back the daily £12.50 charge as part of their tax return if the journey was “an exceptional trip solely for business,” the Greater London Authority told the FT ^[27]. It comes as the Federation of Small Businesses warned a “heavy-handed” ULEZ expansion would be “disastrous” — the Telegraph has more ^[28].

Reminder: London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s controversial expansion of ULEZ to outer London goes live on Tuesday.

DON’T TELL REES-MOGG: Brits largely support “nanny state” policies to improve the country’s health outcomes, with analysis by the Social Market Foundation ^[29] think tank finding, on average, 65 percent backed advertising bans and 56 percent endorsed price regulations.

ROH ROH: At least 26 councils are at risk of financial collapse, the Guardian reports ^[30].

FARMING TOMORROW: Farmers are “frustrated and worried” about the U.K.’s future food security, with many calling for more support from the government, National World’s Ralph Blackburn hears ^[31].

RACISM CRACKDOWN: The Independent splashes ^[32] with Cabinet Office Minister Jeremy Quin issuing a warning to all Whitehall departments that racism will not be tolerated following the paper’s investigation into the use of the n-word in government documents — Adam Forrest and Nadine White have more ^[33].

SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS: Schools Minister Nick Gibb ^[34] has urged parents to send their children into school for the fall term even if they have a cough or cold. Writing in the Sun ^[35], Gibb warned “persistent absenteeism” has a “long-term impact” on a child’s life prospects.

WHAT’S YOUR EMERGENCY? Ambulances in England broke down more than 7,000 times in 2022, a 36 percent increase on 2018, freedom of information requests by the Lib Dems uncovered.

BEYOND THE M25

ROYAL SNUB: The Scottish government is set to snub Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden’s request for a list of public buildings which would qualify for a framed portrait of King Charles III, claiming the £8 million scheme is a waste of officials’ time and public money — the Telegraph has more ^[36].

A MONSTER CALLS: Loch Ness monster sleuths have failed to solve the mystery of Nessie again — the BBC has more ^[37].

DRESS DOWN: France’s Education Minister Gabriel Attal announced a ban on the Islamic garment known as the abaya in schools— my colleague Clea Caulcutt has further details ^[38].

OWN GOAL: Athletes at sporting events across Spain expressed solidarity with national team footballer Jenni Hermoso over the non-consensual kiss from Luis Rubiales, who has since been suspended as head of the Spanish Football Federation by FIFA — POLITICO’s Aitor Hernández-Morales has more ^[39].

THEY SAY IT’S HIM: Russian investigators confirmed the death of Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash last week, saying genetic tests proved his identity — here’s Aitor again ^[40].

MEDIA ROUND

Home Secretary Suella Braverman broadcast round: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.25 a.m.).

Shadow Employment Minister Justin Madders broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.10 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … LBC (8.20 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Dorset Police and Crime Commissioner Martyn Underhill (8.30 a.m.) … Fire Brigades Union General-Secretary Matt Wrack (9.10 a.m.) … Metropolitan Police Federation Vice Chair Rick Prior (9.30 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Chief Executive of the College of Policing Andy Marsh (7.05 a.m.) … Tory MP John Redwood (8.05 a.m.) … Association of School and College Leaders General-Secretary Geoff Barton (8.20 a.m.) … Former England rugby captain Lawrence Dallaglio (8.40 a.m.).

Also on GB News Breakfast: Tory county and district Councilor Holly Whitbread (7 a.m.) … Tory London Assembly Leader Neil Garratt (8.05 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK ^[41]: Europe’s “template” for migration — Tunisian strongman’s racist clampdown.

Daily Express ^[42]: Tory infighting will gift Labour the keys to No 10.

Daily Mail ^[43]: NHS “trying to erase women.”

Daily Mirror ^[44]: Great British food scandal.

Daily Star ^[45]: 23C happy Monday!

Financial Times ^[46]: China’s sluggish economy will weigh on global trade, western groups warn.

i: Tory “big beasts” facing wipeout at next election — as Dorries opens up new splits.

The Daily Telegraph ^[47]: Braverman — police must investigate every theft.

The Guardian ^[48]: Ultra-processed foods causing a “tidal wave of harm,” say experts.

The Independent ^[49]: No 10 crackdown on racism after N-word revelations.

The Times ^[50]: Electronic tagging plan to stop migrants fleeing.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny intervals with a gentle breeze — highs of 21C.

MOVING ON: Sky News anchor Kimberley Leonard ^[51] bids farewell to the broadcaster as she is “heading off on a new adventure.”

NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: The Odyssey: Episode 5 — The Underworld ^[52] closes its bank holiday run at the Olivier Theatre in the National Theatre at 7 p.m. — a 22-minute walk from Westminster.

LISTEN TO: Historian Catherine Merridale reflects on the Memorial organization, which was created to investigate the Soviet Union’s political violence against its own people, and the Kremlin’s impact on its work, in Memorial No More? A History of Russian Forgetting ^[53] at 8 p.m. on Radio 4.

IN HER OWN WORDS: The Times carries extracts from Theresa May’s new biography.^[54] Why do I feel we’ve read it all before ^[55]?

DON’T MISS: The second episode of Channel 4’s Top Guns: Inside the RAF ^[56] series, which boasts “unprecedented access” to fighter jets and war planes, is at 9 p.m.

NOW READ: In the New Statesman ^[57], Jonn Elledge argues a Labour victory will allow the party to set the terms of debate on subjects like Europe and planning reform.

BIRTHDAYS: Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds … Science, Innovation and Technology Committee Chair Greg Clark … Stroud MP Siobhan Baillie … Former Digital Minister Margot James … Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale … Non-affiliated peer and former BBC Trust chief Rona Fairhead … PA Deputy Political Editor Sam Blewett.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Jack Lahart and Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producer Seb Starcevic.

References

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^{^} sketch on Dorries’ resignation (thecritic.co.uk)
^{^} behind in the polls (www.politico.eu)
^{^} seeking to portray him as an “eco-zealot” (www.dailymail.co.uk)
^{^} A poll for the i (inews.co.uk)
^{^} Braverman (www.telegraph.co.uk)
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^{^} in a characteristically zesty interview (www.theguardian.com)
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