So Biden’s a no-show on the New Hampshire primary ballot. What happens next?
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden wasn’t successful in unseating New Hampshire from the first-in-the-nation primary slot it has held for more than a century, but his campaign’s announcement this week that he won’t appear on the state’s 2024 primary ballot has nonetheless added a new wrinkle to the contest and created complications for his campaign, state election officials, and voters. Although several key details about next year’s New Hampshire primary have yet to be determined, the event has begun to take shape.
When is the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
State law gives New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan exclusive authority to set the date for the 2024 primary, but he has yet to do so. For 40 years, it has been held the Tuesday following the Iowa caucuses, which are scheduled for Jan.
15. State law also says the primary must be held at least seven days before any similar contest. The South Carolina Democratic primary on Feb.
3 is the earliest contest on the Democratic National Committee’s official calendar. The only Tuesday that fits within these parameters is Jan.
23.
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FILE – President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s economic agenda during an event at Prince George’s Community College in Largo, Md., Thursday, Sept.
14, 2023. Biden and the Democratic National Committee raised more than £71 million for his reelection in the three months ending Sept.
30, a strong indication that party donors remain united behind him going into a 2024 race that may feature a rematch with Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
Susan Walsh
Why won’t Biden’s name appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot?
The move is the latest development in a long-simmering dispute within the Democratic Party over which states and regions should have the first say in determining the party’s presidential nominees every four years. Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally kicked off the nomination process for both parties, but other states have challenged their prime placement in the calendar over the years. This has resulted in states leapfrogging one another and a steadily earlier start to the primary campaign season.
Biden, who placed fifth in New Hampshire in 2020, urged Democratic Party officials last year to rejigger the primary calendar with South Carolina in the lead-off position. His 29-point win in the 2020 South Carolina primary ended his string of embarrassing early-state losses that year and put his campaign on positive footing to win the nomination. The DNC adopted the president’s proposal and scheduled the South Carolina primary to lead the party’s nomination process on Feb.
3, with New Hampshire and Nevada to follow on Feb.
6. However, New Hampshire indicated its intent to maintain its first-in-the-nation primary status in violation of party rules and risk possible penalties from the DNC down the road. Rather than flout the rules he urged the national party to adopt, Biden chose to stay off the ballot in New Hampshire.
Will Biden still be a factor in the New Hampshire primary?
Biden’s name will not appear as a printed option on the New Hampshire primary ballot.
However, some state Democratic leaders have begun organizing a write-in effort on Biden’s behalf. The move is not without precedent. President Lyndon Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 as a write-in candidate, although he dropped out of the race 19 days later.
State Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley said in a social media post, “The reality is that Joe Biden will win the (New Hampshire primary) in January, win renomination in Chicago and will be re-elected next November.”
How will write-in votes be counted?
According to the secretary of state, local officials will process ballots with write-in votes on election night and tabulate them along with votes for other candidates.
Under state law, they must post their results publicly and submit their tallies to the secretary of state by 8 a.m. the following morning. It’s not clear whether these election night write-in totals will be broken down by individual candidates. In elections across the country, it is rare for officials to provide vote totals for individual write-in candidates on election night.
It is more common to release a cumulative total for all write-in candidates on election night and then provide a more detailed breakdown at a later date. That was the case in Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s successful write-in reelection campaign in Alaska in 2010.
In that race, Murkowski received 99% of the write-in votes cast, but the final result wasn’t known until more than two weeks after Election Day. Scanlan said he will urge towns to enlist additional help to speed up the count, but he sounded optimistic about the process in comments to reporters on Tuesday. “It sounds like it would be a big job, but you have to remember, it is one race where it is ‘vote for one,’ and it’s fairly easy to sort through the ballots,” he said. “I think it is a challenge that can be overcome.”
In the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary, write-in votes comprised 2% of the total vote, or about 6,000 votes.
What happens to New Hampshire’s Democratic delegates?
Party rules don’t bar a write-in candidate from winning delegates. Delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote and the vote in each of the state’s two congressional districts. The larger question is whether, and how, the national party would punish New Hampshire Democrats for holding their primary earlier than allowed.
One option would be to strip the state of all its delegate votes at next year’s national convention in Chicago. This would risk alienating the state’s most influential Democrats who would be critical in turning out supporters in a general election swing state. Another option would be seating all of New Hampshire’s delegates but giving them half or some fraction of a full vote on the convention floor.
Or the national party could decide to do nothing. In 2008, when Michigan and Florida held primaries earlier than allowed under party rules, the DNC opted to try all three. Initially, it said both states would be stripped of all their delegates.
Then, after negotiations with the campaigns of then-Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, it announced that delegates from both states could each cast half a vote. Finally, shortly before the convention began, party officials voted to grant Michigan and Florida delegates full voting rights in the interest of party unity.
What will a Biden-less primary ballot look like?
The simplest path to get on the New Hampshire presidential primary ballot is to submit a Declaration of Candidacy and pay a £1,000 filing fee.
The minimal filing requirements usually result in a crowded field. In the 2020 primary, there were 33 Democratic and 17 Republican candidates on the ballots. Voters may write the name of another candidate in the blank space marked “WRITE-IN” at the end of the list of candidates.
The candidate filing period ends Friday at 5 p.m. ET. As of Wednesday, 13 Democrats had submitted the necessary paperwork to appear on the ballot, including 2020 hopeful Marianne Williamson.
Minnesota U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips has not filed but is widely expected to do so.
Twenty-one Republicans filed, including all of the major candidates. What vote coverage will the Associated Press provide on election night? The AP will report vote totals in both the Democratic and Republican New Hampshire primaries.
For Democrats, this will include any write-in vote totals and details by candidate that the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office makes available. The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. A significant amount of write-in votes may slow the race-calling process if elections officials don’t immediately provide a breakdown by candidate.
Associated Press writers Holly Ramer in Concord, New Hampshire, and Will Weissert in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
1. West Virginia
1.
West Virginia Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin West Virginia remains the seat most likely to change party hands next year, whatever Sen.
Joe Manchin does. The most conservative Democrat in the Senate – who hasn’t ruled out running as an independent for reelection or for president – Manchin isn’t expected to announce his plans until the end of this year. He raised £715,000 in the July-to-September third quarter – enough to maintain appearances that he’ll be a candidate next year.
The haul is also more than what either of his major GOP opponents raised but about half a million less than his previous quarter total. (The chances of this seat flipping only go up if Manchin declines to seek a third full term.) Even if he runs without the “D” after his name, he’ll have an uphill battle in a state Trump won by 39 points in 2020. His vulnerability is apparent in the way GOP-affiliated ads are tying him to Biden and Democratic-aligned spots are tying him to Trump.
One Nation, for example, has attacked him over his support of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, while Duty and Honor PAC has touted Manchin’s work with Trump to protect miners’ pensions. The immediate fight, however, is the GOP primary, where Jim Justice, the popular Democrat-turned-Republican governor, has outraised Rep. Alex Mooney by about £300,000.
While national Republicans and Trump are behind Justice, the Club for Growth and an allied super PAC have committed nearly £13.6 million to the House Freedom Caucus member. The club’s political arm is airing ads calling Justice a RINO, or Republican in Name Only, and trying to tie him to Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
2. Montana
2. Montana Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
Sen. Jon Tester, another red-state Democrat, is no stranger to tough races. But the most pressing question is whether GOP Rep.
Matt Rosendale – fresh off his vote to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – decides to complicate national Republicans’ plans by mounting his own bid to avenge his 2018 loss to Tester. The NRSC likes retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who already has the backing of the two other members of Montana’s congressional delegation (including Daines, the NRSC chairman) and Gov. Greg Gianforte.
Sheehy, who entered the race in July, raised £2.9 million in the most recent fundraising quarter (including about £653,000 in personal money), but he’s a relative newcomer. (The Minnesota native has taken heat, for example, for saying in a Breitbart News interview that there were more bears than people in Montana.) Rosendale, too, has out-of-state roots, and his House campaign only brought in about £335,000 during the third quarter. But as a previous statewide candidate – he was elected state auditor in 2016 and lost to Tester by about 4 points in 2018 – he starts with more built-in name recognition than Sheehy and could potentially benefit from assistance from the Club for Growth.
Sheehy has been on air trying to introduce himself, leaning heavily into his military service and using ranching motifs to highlight his ties to the state. He’s also been attacking Tester for not adhering to some of the commitments in an ethics pledge he ran on during his first campaign, as CNN’s KFile reported. An outside group called Last Best Place PAC, seemingly linked to Democrats, is attacking Sheehy – a sign Democrats may think he’d be a tougher opponent than Rosendale.
Tester appears to be taking the race seriously – he raised more than £5 million in the third quarter and ended September with £13 million.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
3. Ohio
3.
Ohio Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown Democratic Sen.
Sherrod Brown is gearing up for a tough race in a state that’s been trending red over the past decade. (He raised £5.8 million in the third quarter, ending the period with £11.2 million.) He’ll need all the money he can get if he faces one of the two self-funders vying for the GOP nomination. Both businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan loaned their campaigns £3 million in the third quarter.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose – who raised about £1 million, including £250,000 he loaned his campaign – doesn’t have the same kinds of personal resources, but he likely starts with a name ID advantage as the only statewide elected official in the GOP race. He became the public face of an August ballot effort to raise the threshold for amending the state constitution – seen as a proxy fight over an upcoming November referendum on abortion rights. LaRose admitted the measure was effectively about abortion, so the effort’s failure has been a point of attack from his primary opponents.
Trump carried Ohio twice, and his backing proved instrumental in getting now-Sen. JD Vance over the finish line in last year’s Republican primary, which also featured Dolan and, briefly, Moreno. Vance is backing Moreno in this primary, and while Trump has praised Moreno, he hasn’t made any endorsement yet.
The NRSC is so far staying neutral in this race. The candidates met for their first forum last weekend, where US aid to Ukraine was a point of divergence between Moreno – who, like Vance, wants to suspend it – and Dolan, who wants it to continue. (LaRose called for making aid contingent on securing the US southern border.) Meanwhile, Brown has been on the picket line with striking United Auto Workers – underscoring the economic populist streak that Democrats hope will allow him to defy the political tilt of his state once again.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
4.
Pennsylvania
4. Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey The Keystone State moves up several spots this month largely because of how uniquely settled the GOP primary is compared with other battleground states. Republicans coalesced around Dave McCormick to take on Democratic Sen.
Bob Casey soon after the former hedge fund executive got into the race in late September. (State Sen. Doug Mastriano announced in May that he was passing on a bid – a major relief for national Republicans who were wary of the failed 2022 gubernatorial candidate and election denier.) But Democrats think McCormick, who unsuccessfully sought the state’s other Senate seat last year, has his own baggage.
He tried to tack to the right in an effort to secure Trump’s endorsement and the GOP nomination in the 2022 Senate primary, which could alienate some suburban Philadelphia voters in a general election. He’s also facing questions about his residency. McCormick insists that he lives in Pennsylvania but returns to Connecticut to visit his daughter, who’s still in school there and lives with his ex-wife. “And if there’s a political cost associated with that, so be it,” he recently told ABC27’s “This Week in Pennsylvania.”
Still, the combination of McCormick and his vast personal resources during a presidential year are likely to make this Casey’s most competitive Senate race yet. The three-term incumbent, who raised £3.2 million in the third quarter, has a well-known political name in the state and enjoys a 48% job approval (and 31% disapproval) rating, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month. He led McCormick 50% to 44% among registered voters in that survey, but this race is still young.
Mark Makela/Getty Images
5.
Arizona
5. Arizona
Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema Kari Lake – who embraced election denialism and conspiracy theories in her losing 2022 gubernatorial bid – was far from Republicans’ dream Senate candidate in this emerging purple state. But the former TV anchor is going to be hard to beat in a primary given her strong connection with the GOP base.
Trump endorsed her by video at her announcement rally earlier this month, and there are signs that the party establishment is trying to keep her close. “We have not ruled out endorsing Lake,” a source familiar with the NRSC’s strategy told CNN. Daines has said the national party has had “productive conversations” with Lake, who recently told The Associated Press she’d vote for McConnell for leader. She’s also picked up the backing of Senate GOP Conference Chairman John Barrasso.
But Lake still won’t admit she lost last year’s gubernatorial race and her past hard-line positions on abortion could turn off swing voters. Her candidacy represents a familiar challenge for Arizona Republicans, whose recent nominees for key offices swung right in the primary and then struggled to pivot to the general election. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is also running for Senate, but raised just £475,000 in the third quarter.
The race will remain unsettled, however, until Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent last year, announces whether she’s running. Her £825,000 haul in the third quarter raised questions about her future, given that it was less than what she’s raised in the past.
But Sinema still had more than £10 million in the bank as of September 30. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, meanwhile, outraised her yet again – bringing in £3.1 million last quarter – but had about half of her cash on hand.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
6.
Nevada
6. Nevada
Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen Nevada is a slightly more Democratic state than most on this list, although that’s not saying much. It voted for Biden by about 2 points, so Democrats aren’t taking Sen.
Jacky Rosen’s reelection for granted. She raised £2.7 million in the third quarter, ending with £8.8 million in the bank. National Republicans have made clear their preference for retired Army Capt.
Sam Brown, an unsuccessful 2022 Senate candidate who’s trying to tie Rosen to Biden and his economic policies. But that hasn’t winnowed the GOP field. Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland, Jeff Gunter, entered the race in August and has cut an ad that refers to him as “110% pro-Trump.” Retired Air Force Lt.
Col. Tony Grady, who lost a GOP primary bid for lieutenant governor last year, also jumped into the race in August. Former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, an election denier and the losing 2022 GOP nominee for Nevada secretary of state, only raised £74,000 last quarter, compared with £1.2 million for Brown.
The primary isn’t until June, but Democrats are already seizing on what they see as vulnerabilities in Brown’s abortion positioning, including comments he made during a 2014 run for the Texas state legislature and his past work with the Nevada Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
7. Wisconsin
7.
Wisconsin Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin slides down one spot on this list, in part because Republicans still don’t have a major candidate to take on Democratic Sen.
Tammy Baldwin. That doesn’t mean this race won’t eventually be very competitive in a battleground presidential state that swung from Trump to Biden in 2020. Republicans are eyeing businessman and 2012 Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who would likely have the ability to self-fund.
Baldwin raised £3.1 million during the third quarter and began October with about £6.9 million in the bank. This is one of the few states where presidential performance isn’t necessarily indicative of Senate race outcomes. GOP Sen.
Ron Johnson, for example, won a third term last year after Biden had carried the state, albeit by only about half a point, two years earlier.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
8. Michigan
8.
Michigan Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring) Michigan is a bluer state than its Midwestern neighbor Wisconsin – Biden carried the Wolverine State by nearly 3 points and Democrats saw success up and down the ticket in 2022, in part because abortion was such a galvanizing issue.
Democrats are now trying to ensure that retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat remains in their hands. Much of the party has coalesced around Rep.
Elissa Slotkin, who raised nearly £3 million in the third quarter, although she does face primary challenges, including from actor Hill Harper, who raised about £559,000 and kicked in about £463,000 more of his own money. Republicans landed a prominent recruit in former Rep. Mike Rogers, who succeeded Stabenow in the House and represented an earlier version of Slotkin’s Lansing-area seat for seven terms.
Rogers, who raised £824,00 in the third quarter after entering the race in September, earned immediate praise from the NRSC as the “type of candidate who can perform well with suburban Michiganders.” And although the former House Intelligence chairman may use his recent absence from elected politics as a selling point, the GOP has changed a lot since he left Congress in 2015 – especially in Michigan, where the state party has a controversial new chair. Since entering the race, Rogers has already landed a primary challenge from former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who was disqualified from last year’s governor’s race over signature issues. Former Rep.
Peter Meijer, who has formed an exploratory committee, could still run – although the one-term congressman isn’t likely to curry much favor with the GOP base after voting to impeach Trump in 2021.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
9. Texas
9.
Texas Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz Texas is a hard state for Democrats to flip – they haven’t won a statewide election here since 1994, their longest losing streak in the country.
But GOP Sen. Ted Cruz makes a good villain for national Democrat donors. (See Beto O’Rourke’s massive 2018 fundraising hauls in his closer-than-expected loss to the senator.) The question, however, is whether that grassroots Democratic opposition to Cruz can translate widely enough to deny him a third term.
Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who has already proved to be a strong fundraiser, brought in £4.7 million in the third quarter – more than Cruz’s £3.1 million. Democrats tout the former NFL player’s background as a good fit for Texas – he first won election to the House by flipping a GOP-held district in the Dallas area and has previously won support from the US Chamber of Commerce.
But although Allred already appears focused on Cruz, he’ll have to get through a crowded primary first. Among the other candidates is state Sen. Roland Guttierez, who represents Uvalde and raised £632,000 in the third quarter.
Alex Wong/Getty Images
10.
Florida
10. Florida
Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott Former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell announced her campaign to take on GOP Sen.
Rick Scott in late August. Despite only being in the race for part of the third quarter, she narrowly outraised the first-term senator and former governor – £1.5 million to £1.4 million. Scott gave his campaign an additional £154,000 of his own money, and there’s plenty more where that came from for the wealthy former health care CEO.
Florida has been trending red in recent years – Trump carried the state by about 3 points in 2020, nearly tripling his margin from four years earlier. But each of Scott’s races for governor and Senate have been relatively close, and he’s never run in a presidential year. Democrats have targeted him over some of his more unpopular policy proposals – such as a sunset provision for all federal programs, which he later revised to exclude Social Security and Medicare after criticism from within his own party.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, for example, has been running digital ads casting Scott and Cruz as threats to popular entitlement programs. Even with Democratic investment, though, it’s going to take a lot to flip this seat blue. The state’s senior senator, Republican Marco Rubio, won reelection last year over a high-profile Democratic opponent by 16 points.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Analysis: Pennsylvania moves up list of contested Senate seats in 2024
While events on the other side of the world – and the other end of the US Capitol – have dominated recent news, the race for control of the Senate is a crucial factor in what Washington could look like after next year’s elections.
The 2024 Senate map is advantageous for Republicans as they try to pick up the one or two seats needed to flip the chamber, depending on who wins the White House next year. Members of the Senate Democratic Caucus are defending the most competitive seats – the top eight on this list of 10 seats most likely to flip – which is not likely to change ahead of November 2024. The order of the ranking, however, is changing. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.) Pennsylvania, for example, shoots up from No.
7 in July to No.
4 this month – in large part because it’s the one battleground where Republicans aren’t facing a messy primary. GOP candidate fields elsewhere have only grown over the past couple of months, despite the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s new policy of taking sides in primaries. Besides Pennsylvania, the national party has made its preference known for specific candidates in West Virginia, Montana, Nevada and Michigan.
The NRSC is neutral in Ohio’s crowded primary and hasn’t ruled out endorsing in Arizona. Whether engaging in primaries early on will pay off remains to be seen. So far, however, NRSC Chairman Steve Daines’ tactic of keeping Donald Trump close appears to be working, as the former president hasn’t yet endorsed against any of the campaign committee’s picks.
The GOP presidential front-runner – with his four criminal indictments – is likely to be a liability in some places next year if he is the party’s nominee. But Republicans take comfort in the fact that he won the top three states on this list handily in 2020 and red-state Democrats will have to run with an unpopular President Joe Biden atop the ticket. In an era of increasingly nationalized politics, it’s becoming harder to run for Senate in a state that voted for the opposite party’s presidential nominee.
In Democrats’ favor, however, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio have succeeded at it before. Vulnerable Democratic senators will try to distance themselves from Biden where they can or try to signal that they represent a check on the White House.
For example, six of them (plus independent Sen.
Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with Democrats) recently joined a bipartisan call to the secretary of state to freeze £6 billion in Iranian assets after Hamas’ attack on Israel – even though the administration has made clear that the money hasn’t been touched, has strict restrictions around it and the US hasn’t found a direct link between Iran and the Hamas attack.
It’s too early to say whether current events – especially abroad – could have any impact on elections that are still over a year away, but with the GOP-led House paralyzed without a speaker and Congress being called upon to approve aid to Israel and Ukraine, the moment has underscored how congressional contests have very real consequences.
Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images
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